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Wednesday, August 6, 2014

Ebola Update

Hello, Frank here.

I have run across a few things lately that I think we all need to be concerned about. Some agencies are telling us not to worry about Ebola ever spreading in our country. My primary question is: If it's not something to worry about, then why are some countries in Africa closing their borders, and a few European airliners have cancelled all flights to these infected countries? Other news reports state that the Ebola virus is out of control. So, I am confused. And you should be, too. 

Following is an excerpt from a Fox News TV show that I found at FoxNews.com. It's a panel of five people, I believe, discussing the pros/cons, the ups and downs of the Ebola situation, one is a medical doctor. If you could, take the time to watch it, it is about 14 minutes long. The opinions presented here are quite varied as to what could and should be done. A side note. This type of TV show is one of the reasons I quit watching television 20 years ago. But in my search for data, I ran across it, and I think it's worth watching. Note that one of the commentators briefly mentions the tuberculosis problem on our southern border. This is something that some feel is being avoided with the Ebola outbreak in Africa.

August 5, 2014

Fox Video: Gutfeld: Stop the Ebola Hysteria




Grouped together below are three different commentaries by Michael Snyder who is the author of The Economic Collapse blog. Each article he presents illustrates a different perspective of the Ebola outbreak. His articles are dated so you will understand where he was coming from at the time. His articles are not short, but they're not extremely long either. He writes in a format that is easy for us all to understand. Take note that Michael Snyder normally writes about economics.

August 4, 2014

What Will It Mean If The Potential Ebola Victim In New York City Actually Has The Virus?

August 3, 2014

25 Critical Facts About This Ebola Outbreak That Every American Needs To Know

July 30th, 2014

This is What Is Going to Happen If Ebola Comes To America 

 

A friend of mine sent me an email from a religious website. It is a lengthy article about Ebola and it focuses on quarantine and isolation. This article is from a group named AVOW and it's readership is primarily LDS (Mormon). Again, it is a long article, but well worth your read. There may come a day where we might need this information, whether it's flu, tuberculosis, Ebola or some yet-to-be-named virus.

 

 

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AVOW: Another Voice of Warning Newsletter
August 5th 2014
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Please feel free to forward this notice to all of your Family, Friends and Associates. 

The Ebola Virus:
Social Distancing & Survival
by Kevin Reeve, LDS-AVOW Moderator 
 
 

Back in '94, as I learned about this disease, I spoke to a viral epidemiologist friend. He said that what made the disease less threatening is that it had been relatively easy to contain in small remote villages because it kills its victims so quickly. But he warned of a catastrophe of biblical dimensions if it ever took hold in a densely populated area.

Today, the Ebola Virus is breaking out. It is not being contained, and if it continues to spread as today, it could create a pandemic.

On Saturday, a woman, 72, arriving on a flight from Sierra Leone collapsed at the Gatwick airport, north of London. According to witnesses, the victim was sweating, vomiting, and died later that day in the hospital yet exhibited no symptoms on the flight. An update given to the public indicated that tests came back negative for Ebola. It's hard to think of another illness, with a sudden onset, which kills so quickly, and whose symptoms eerily mimic those of Ebola. We can hope that authorities are competent and truthful, but hope is not a strategy.

 Dr. Olive Johnson, working in Freeport, Sierra Leone, said:

"What shocking is how healthy the patients look before they die and how quickly they decline. A number of the Ebola patients I've seen look quite fit and healthy and can be walking around until shortly before their deaths."

With an incubation period of between 2-12 days, the problem of detection and protection becomes glaringly obvious. While Ebola may not be considered an imminent threat to us in the US, it's compelling enough to interest people in the critical topic of Social Distancing, or as it more commonly known "quarantine." Social Distancing is recommend in scenarios more common than Ebola, like flu pandemics.

For this article, I will use the example of Ebola to highlight components of Social Distancing.

The last great pandemic was the Spanish Flu of 1918, which killed an estimated 50,000,000 people, worldwide, with a kill rate of only 5%.   Contrast that with Ebola, which kills 60%-90% of those infected, according to the World Health Organization. So far transmission is by direct and surface contact, however that may be in question with reports of airborne transmission in 2012 Scientific Reports.

Social Distancing: the only proven response

In the Spanish Flu outbreak in 1918, there was one country that was able to completely avoid having anyone die from the disease. The island country of Samoa closed its harbors and allowed no one, not one single person, to come ashore during the life of the disease. Samoans, living in an equatorial climate replete with year-round food sources, were fortunate to be able to provide for all of their own needs during that time.

Japan had very few cases of the flu using the same approach. They isolated the entire country. A practical goal for an island.

I want to suggest that you consider preparations to engage in local social isolation for a period of 90 days, the approximate burnout time for a typical pandemic.

Here are some terms you should become familiar with. If you understand what is happening, then dealing with it is simpler.

Ebola, like the common flu, is a virus. Viruses do not respond to antibiotics. It is possible to create immunizations for viruses, but each immunization has to be specifically developed for each virus. Currently, there is no immunization or treatment for Ebola outside of comfort care for the victims.

Most bacterial infections do respond to antibiotics and tend to be more easily controlled. Some bacteria, like MSRA are not easily stopped by antibiotics and may also be pandemic causers. A friend contracted MSRA from a daughter-in-law who had recently delivered a baby in a hospital. They both were treated with oral and IV antibiotics for 18 months. Resources would be rapidly depleted if a large number of people became infected.

Below are some Pandemic Terms that may help in your understanding:

Exposure: Contact with an infected party in such a way that transmission could have occurred.

Virulence: the % of those exposed who contact the disease.

Incubation: The time after exposure until the infected party is detectibly infected.

Infection: someone who has been exposed and has become infected with the disease.

Contagious: The time after infection when the infected person becomes contagious

Symptomatic: The time at which symptoms first appear.

One of the factors that contribute to a pandemic occurs when a patient is infected and contagious, but asymptomatic, greatly enhancing the opportunity for the virus to spread.

Transference: The method by which the disease is transferred. Some viruses are airborne, meaning transferred by breathing. They are the most dangerous. Some are transferred by contact. If I touch something that a sick person has been in contact with, I am exposed. Ebola is considered a disease that is transferred by contact with bodily fluids, or with a surface that has had infected bodily fluids on them.

Transference is a function of exposure. If transference is airborne, then little exposure will lead to a high incidence of infection. If it takes body fluid transference, then exposure requires a much higher level of interaction, such as health care workers have with infected patients.

Ebola requires bodily fluid transference, which is probably the only reason it has not killed many beyond those caring for the sick. If it mutates, or if there is a breakout, then things will progress rapidly. It is a geometric progression.

Mortality rate: the rate at which those who are infected die. A highly pathogenic disease is one that has a high mortality rate. It is highly virulent and highly deadly, as is Ebola.

Spanish flu was quite virulent. Because of the means of transference, if you were exposed, there was a 50% chance you would contract the disease. At the time it was considered to have a high mortality rate because it killed 5% of those who got it. Typical flu kills only .01%, which made Spanish Flu 500 times more deadly than a typical flu, and Ebola kills 90% so it is many times more deadly than typical flu. This is to set the stage for what may happen in densely populated areas.

You can see the problem when someone is exposed, infected, becomes contagious but is not yet symptomatic. The American killed by Ebola in Lagos, Nigeria this week was exposed on a trip to visit his infected sister in Liberia. He boarded an airplane with a fever. Soon he was vomiting and passing black fluid, and collapsed on the plane. Potentially everyone on the plane could have been exposed through the air-system, whether or not to the point of infection, it is unknown.   They all should have been quarantined.

Subsequently, the passengers dispersed into the largest city in Africa, Lagos, pop. 21 million. The Nigerian government is now attempting to round-up those passengers for observation. However, fearing their government, these potential disease vectors are hiding and possibly running to other cities. The American who died was planning on changing planes in Lagos and continue on to the US.

So let's suppose the disease breaks out into a pandemic. Large population centers are going to be ravaged by the disease. The social fabric will rip apart. Chaos and fear will spread. What can you do to protect you and your family?
In order to survive, you must follow the example of Samoa and isolate as if you lived on an island. Social distancing or self-imposed quarantine is the only way guaranteed to prevent contact with the disease.

Protocols and Gear

Here are some simple protocols that will get you through the time needed in social isolation to survive the disease.

Most viruses will run their course in 90 days. During that time there will be a Phase 1 initial pass through, then usually a Phase 2, second pass. Finally, when all that are going to be infected are infected, and when all the infected die that are going to die, the disease fades back into oblivion. At that point there are few transmission vectors.

But how do you survive in isolation for 90 days?

Terms relative to social distancing

Isolation: Closing oneself and family away for the duration of the illness. This means living indoors in your house or other building, and not having any physical contact with any other person.

Border: The outside boundary of your isolation area. I have a chain link fence on two sides of the property and a wall on the other two. Once I go inside my border, it becomes sacrosanct. NO ONE is allowed to cross that border without permission. The understanding is that the border is enforced with the threat of deadly force.

The Outside Area: This is the area between the outside boundary or border and the walls of the house, typically called the yard. It becomes a "no-mans land", a buffer zone accessed only by the "Outside Man."

The Outside Man: this is a volunteer who resides in the Outside Area, lives in a separate shelter from the main home, maintains the border, and handles logistics for the main household when contact with the community is required. He remains isolated from the people outside the boundary, and from the people inside the house.

The outside man will interact with others, just not directly. For example, when the family inside the house has trash, they will place it in a virtual sally port, which could be as simple as an agreed-upon spot outside a door, and when they are back inside, the outside man will dispose of it with no danger to either.

The Inside Area: This is the family abode. It's typically a house, or it may be an office facility, or a warehouse, which is lockable and somewhat defendable (to a point, as most domiciles are not even remotely defendable.) You need containment and isolation from the outside world.

The Family: Once inside, they stay inside for the next 90 days. Literally inside. Not going beyond the Inside Area for any reason. No exposure to anyone.

Isolation Area:
A holding area for those who may have been exposed to wait out the incubation time. They will either contact the disease, or last though the incubation time without becoming infected. After undergoing a meticulous scrub down and burning their clothes, they are clear to enter the house.

Protocols: A set of procedures that ensure that The Family is maintained in complete isolation, and that any risks are mitigated by complete isolation.

An example of a protocol would be adopting the procedure of washing anything entering the house be cleaned with a bleach solution. 

Another protocol is that the Outside Man will have no direct contact with anyone from outside the border. If a family member showed up and wanted to be admitted, they would be taken to the tent that would be their home for the full incubation period. They would have food (served on paper plates) brought within a safe distance, and would dispose of their own waste, etc. The idea is that during their isolation period, things come into their area, but do not come out at all. If that person comes down with the disease and subsequently dies, he is immolated in his tent using diesel fuel. 

The principle is total and complete isolation from anyone and everyone. 

To be prepared to isolate, one must be able to exist inside their home with no outside support for 90 days. This includes food, water, fuel, sanitation, medical care, entertainment and anything else necessary to stay alive. Cabin fever anyone?

Food: Easy to prepare items that you might keep in your pantry. You would need a minimum of 1500 calories per day per person. A more comfortable level will be 2,500 to 3,000 calories a day. This should include protein, such as canned tuna or chicken, carbohydrates such as pasta and bread, and fat. MREs could help fill the gap, but unless you store laxatives, you do not want to make these your primary source of food. Mac-N-Cheese, stew, and soup are all good examples.

Water: This will be the crucible for many people. You need 90 gallons per person for 90 days. You will probably have utilities for at least a few days to a few weeks, but if the disease hits the infrastructure support, you will not be able to count on water and electricity. Since storing that much waster is challenging you will want to start now. Save two liter soda bottles and fill them. I have water barrels that hold 50 gallons. A swimming pool holds thousands. A hot water heater holds 40. 

I also have a water filter system, a Berkey countertop model. An excellent water filtration system will allow you to store water in every available container and purify as needed, which would be the most convenient method aside from water on tap.

Sanitation: As long as the utilities remain on, you can use the indoor toilets. But once it goes off, you will need some other form of waste disposal. You will need a five-gallon bucket with a toilet seat and lots of 13-gallon white garbage bags. 
Everyone uses the bucket, and once a day, the bag is placed outside the sally port door for the outside man to dispose of.

Medication: If you take a prescription that keeps you alive, you will need a 90- day plus supply, in addition to typical over the counter meds such as ibuprofen, Pepto, and Imodium. Explain to your doctor that you are stockpiling for an emergency, he may agree to provide you with extra on your scrip. You may have to pay for it, but at least you can get it. 

Fuel: If you use a wood stove to heat your home in winter, you will need lots of firewood. If you need propane to run your stove, you will need extra propane. If you have an electric range, you will need some alternative cooking source like a butane burner, white gas stove, etc. Make sure you ventilate when using a flame of any kind inside your house.

Morale: Avoiding cabin fever when locked indoors is going to be significant challenge. You will be cut off from all friends and family outside of your compound. You may not have the internet, or even a cell phone after a while. You will be isolated in terms of news. If you do not have things to do to take your mind off the situation, it will be way more difficult. Puzzles, board games, craft supplies, and other time consuming activities will help pass the time.

Protection: This is a controversial subject for many. As a pandemic spreads, there will be those who take to the road to take away preps from those who have them. Having appropriate weapons for home defense is crucial. The logistics and specifics are legion, but if you have any questions there are many sources on the web that will tell you what you need for home protection.

When to Social Distance:
If you hear about an outbreak here in the US, consider mobilizing for social distancing. Make final preparations, fill your bathtub, and make sure you are stocked with supplies. If you wait for the CDC to tell you to isolate, it may be too late. Stay tuned to reliable news sources. Once a virus reaches your community, you should be safely ensconced. 

I hope that I am an alarmist. I hope that a pandemic does not sweep the globe, whether it is a type of H1N1 flu virus or something else. But if it does, I hope to see you on the other side of it.


I hope you find the information included above to be enlightening and informative. It's intent is not to produce fear, but awareness. It scares me to think that a simple virus could cause a few hundred deaths, or millions and millions of deaths. I wish that I could say that our government always made wise decisions, but we all know that is not true. And I wish that I could say, that I believe the government had "The People's" best interest as their first priority. The more and more I see of our government's reaction to man made, natural and government induced catastrophes, I have little faith in our government. 

As stated earlier, this is not to produce fear, but we all need to be aware what is happening around us. Our neighborhoods are a lot smaller than they used to be. Even in little town America, th